Greece: What Do Investors Need To Know About Risk?

• With a vote and subsequent negotiations in Greece, how concerned should investors be?
• What is contagion and why should we care?
• How can we monitor risks in Europe over the next few weeks?

Historic Vote And Negotiations

With the referendum in Greece less than 24 hours away, the uncertainty and fear for investors is building. From Reuters:

European partners say a ‘No’ vote will jeopardize Greece’s membership of the euro. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras says they are bluffing, fearing the fallout for Europe and the global economy. A ‘Yes’ vote may bring him down, ushering in a new period of political instability for a country reeling from five days of shuttered banks and rationed cash withdrawals.

What Do Investors Need To Know About Risk?

This week’s stock market video takes a comprehensive look at investment risk and Greece. The video uses facts and hard data to answer the questions:

1. What are the markets telling us now about investment risk?
2. How can we monitor risk as the situation evolves?
3. Can we garner any clues from investor sentiment?

Polls Say It Should Be Close

Recent polls in Greece have shown a slight and significantly narrowing lead by the “vote no” camp. From Bloomberg:

Greece’s biggest newspapers called on readers to vote “Yes” in Sunday’s referendum that could determine whether the country stays in the euro. “Nai,” the Greek word for yes, was the headline of the three best-selling papers. About 10 million Greeks head to the polls on July 5 in a plebiscite over terms proposed by the country’s creditors for unlocking emergency loans. The government is campaigning on a “No” vote, with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras making almost daily live televised addresses to the nation in which he asks voters to deny demands for more austerity. Tsipras says that the vote is about austerity, and has nothing to do with Greece’s place in the euro area, which is secure.

This article originally appeared here and has been reprinted by permission.

For a different Opinion See:

• Peter Morici: The Greeks Should Vote ‘No!’

Copyright © 2014 Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC (CCM). Terms of Use. This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of CCM. The opinions are subject to change without notice. This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.