New Long-Term Equity Breakout

On Tuesday, CME and CBOE TV financial commentator Alan Knuckman said on Fox Business, “Trump’s historic tax cuts will boost most American corporate earnings lines by at least 20% in 2018 — sending stocks soaring still from their current levels.”  He is predicting that the Dow will reach 30,000. He said, “The Dow Jones Industrial Index is now […]

Silver Chart of the Day

Silver has had several major peaks over the last year. But interestingly sentiment has been an excellent indicator of peaks. In this video we will look at the correlation between Silver’s price and market sentiment.

Gold: Often, Simple Forecasting Tools Are All You Need

In the following video by Elliott Wave International we will look at the gold price and “Commitment of Traders” In 2017, Gold ‘s rally has stalled three times in April, June and August. With April and June’s price stalling at the same overhead resistance level. Back in August Elliott Wave TV said, When analyzing charts […]

Skeptical Bias Toward Stocks Aligns With Bullish Charts

In the following article by Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management he uses our Misery Index chart to show how markets often rebound from miserable circumstances. And no I didn’t influence him to use our chart 🙂 .  ~Tim McMahon, editor This article by Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management originally appeared here and has […]

How Concerning Are Predictions Of A Stock Market Crash?

Since markets are an extremely difficult and complex animal, our purpose here is not to criticize anyone, but rather to highlight the “grain of salt” nature of any stock market forecast. The dated headlines below featured similar gloom and doom calls, and yet, global markets remain near all-time highs.

The Silver/Gold Ratio, Inflation/Deflation and The Yield Curve

The following article was written by Gary Tanashian editor of Notes From The Rabbit Hole (NFTRH) and originally appeared here. In it Gary looks at the current “Dysfunctional Market” the FED manipulation called “Operation Twist” that caused it along with Gold, Silver, plus inflation and deflation. I like his quote about the effects of inflation, “Funny money on the run… is not discriminating money. It seeks assets… period.” and he holds that that is the primary reason why the stock market has risen since 2011.

Are Defensive Assets Waving Red Flags For Stocks?

In good times for the market “growth” stocks, the NASDAQ and higher risk assets outperform “safe” stocks like the S&P 500. This is commonly referred to as “Risk-On”. But as the market becomes more cautious and participants are more concerned about the return OF their assets vs. the return ON their assets, they shift away from risky assets and towards Bonds, Utilities, and Gold.

In the series of charts below Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management looks at how defensive assets are faring in the current market compared to how it performed in 2007-2009.

This indicator had a divergence in both 2000 and 2007; a divergence is also present in 2017

Market breadth speaks to the number of stocks participating in an advance. Strong market breadth means a high percentage of stocks are making new highs as the major indexes make new highs. Strong breadth also aligns with widespread confidence in stocks and the economy.

How Concerning Is The S&P 500’s Pullback?

This week’s video reviews the impact of the recent pullback on the longer-term outlook. The video also covers the emotional impact of portfolio draw-downs.

Will Stocks Finally Break out of the 35 Year Box?

Despite all the talk of the Dow making new highs over the last few years the truth is actually quite different. The way an index is “weighted” can make all the difference in how it looks. In addition indexes that change their composition regularly like the DOW (i.e.removing some companies and adding better performing ones) create an unnatural upward bias.