In his latest weekly market video, Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital walks through a broad set of technical charts and indicators to answer one key question: do current market conditions align with a bottoming process in stocks? After the S&P 500 gained over 3% in the past five trading sessions, the evidence continues to lean toward “so far, so good” — with breadth indicators, credit markets, and key moving averages all holding at critical support levels. While short-term hurdles remain, the weight of evidence looks far more like the corrections of 2023 and early 2025 than the bear market of 2022. Watch the full video breakdown below.
Stocks and Junk Bonds: “This Divergence Appears Meaningful”
The trends of the junk bond and stock markets tend to be correlated.
The reason why is that junk bonds and stocks are closely affiliated in the pecking order of creditors in case of default. The rank of junk bonds is only slightly higher than equities because debt involves a contract.
Given these two markets are usually correlated, it’s worth paying attention when a divergence takes place. Indeed, a divergence is in the works now. In other words, while stocks have been holding up, the price of junk bonds have been trending lower for much of the year.
Europe’s Return to Risky Investment
Over 100 banks are opening soon, buying junk bonds is gaining popularity and emerging markets are the trendy investment. Sound familiar? Europe appears to be returning to some bad investment habits.

