the FED’s raising interest rates has resulted in an “inverted yield curve” (i.e. short rates are higher than long interest rates) which puts extreme stress on banks and has resulted in some recent bank failures. In this article, the editors of Elliott Wave International look at the banking situation. ~Tim McMahon, editor
Banks Are Becoming More Cautious About Lending
November 17, 2022 by Leave a Comment
With the FED tightening and raising rates, member banks are feeling the pinch and are being forced to adjust their lending practices. The COVID panic of 2020 and 2021 pushed mortgage rates to record lows below 3%. But with the FED’s money pumping during the same period, inflation soared to over 8%. Initially, the FED felt the inflation surge was “transitory” and was the result of supply shortages due to limited production during the pandemic. So, they refused to change their easy money stance. However, as inflation continued to surge, the FED eventually decided that it had to act.
So the FED began tightening (i.e., reducing FED assets), and raising FED funds rates. As we can see in the chart below, the FED funds rate was virtually zero at the beginning of 2022, and by October, it had shot up to 3.08%.
Why Investors are Consistently Fooled by the Stock Market
May 19, 2022 by Leave a Comment
Stock market observers are trying to “make sense” of the wild price moves, which have mainly been to the downside.
As a May 12 CNBC headline says:
Traders search for answers as relentless selling on Wall Street looks to be detached from reality
Many market participants believe the “reality” of economic statistics, earnings and other factors external to the market govern the market’s trend.
However, that’s a fallacy.
Let’s get insights from a classic Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which provides analysis of financial markets and social trends:
Are Disease Outbreaks Market Indicators?
November 20, 2021 by Leave a Comment
Waves of social mood fluctuate in accordance with the Wave Principle and determine prices in financial markets. Moreover, these same waves regulate the tenor and character of social attitudes and actions. The key point is that social mood is the cause. It is endogenous. Prices in financial markets and events in society are the effects. They are exogenous.
However, most people believe the opposite is true.
Rise of the “Know Nothings”
May 1, 2021 by Leave a Comment
With the longest “Bull market” in history in full swing young investors are flocking to the market with no experience of ever having seen a full-fledged crash only “corrections” that are quickly reversed into higher and higher valuations. Twenty-somethings were still in elementary school in 2008 so it is a distant memory… let alone 2002-3 or 1989. With no experience in dealing with a crash, they are plunging into the market at record levels.
Deflationary Psychology Versus the Fed: Here’s the Likely Winner
April 23, 2020 by Leave a Comment
Most economists believe the Fed can prevent financial crises and depressions. [EWI’s analysts] disagree. Socionomic theory proposes that naturally fluctuating waves of social mood regulate financial optimism and the economy. They are unconscious and cannot be managed.
Want to See What’s Next for the Economy? Try This.
July 17, 2019 by Leave a Comment
Don’t listen to the naysayers — there IS a way to forecast the general health of the economy. This method has repeatedly proven itself. Yes, you can anticipate the likelihood of a recession, even a depression — or, conversely, when major economic measures — like jobs — will be robust.
Are Falling Oil Prices Really Good for the Stock Market?
November 8, 2018 by Leave a Comment
It makes sense that falling oil prices would be good for stocks, after all it should lower company’s cost for energy and therefore increase profitability. However, in October 2018 both Oil prices and Stock prices fell simultaneously. So, “What’s Up with that?” In today’s post the Editors at Elliott Wave International will look at the relationship between Oil and Stocks.
Robert Prechter Talks About Elliott Waves and His New Book
April 21, 2017 by Leave a Comment
It’s been a long time since we’ve offered you an article featuring Robert Prechter directly. We’re especially excited to offer you this thoughtful interview Avi Gilburt conducted with Bob.
The Disruptive New Science that Shatters Today’s Investing Paradigm
June 17, 2015 by Leave a Comment
This article was excerpted from a new multimedia report, “The New Financial Theory that Could Make the Difference in Your Investing Success,” (You may watch the excerpt as a video presentation below or if you prefer continue reading the excerpt below the video.)
