This Widely Held Belief About the Trade Deficit Is Wrong
By Elliott Wave International Every day, forecasters make predictions based on the same old tools: economic fundamentals, valuation models, polls and so on. And every day, many of those predictions miss—sometimes spectacularly. The point isn’t that traditional analysts aren’t well-educated; it’s that just MAYBE what they learned is wrong. When the same methods keep producing “misses,” “unexpecteds,” and “surprises,” it’s fair to wonder whether there’s a better way to understand markets, politics and social trends. Elliott Wave International has spent decades exploring exactly that possibility. The widespread assumption is that trade deficits are bearish. But what does the evidence show? This chart, from The Socionomic Theory of Finance, reveals that had economists expressed relief whenever the trade deficit began to expand and concern whenever it began to shrink, they would have quite accurately navigated the ups and downs of the stock market and the economy for 40 … [Read More...]
MSTR (Strategy) following it’s Elliott wave script?
By Elliott Wave International On October 15, 2025, Elliott Wave International’s crypto analysts showed this chart to subscribers and outlined a developing setup in Strategy (MSTR). “Favoring that wave 2 ended at 365.21, we’re looking for a swift decline in five waves to complete wave 3.” What happened next? Strategy declined sharply. At the time […]
Junk Bond Spreads Diverge Further From Stocks
By Elliott Wave International One of the stock market’s important warning signs is getting louder. Junk bond spreads and equities usually move together. When they don’t, it’s worth paying attention. Check out this excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s August 19 Short Term Update. “[This chart] shows updated prices for both the S&P 500 and the […]
Chris Ciovacco Analyzes the April 10th Market Situation
In his latest weekly market video, Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital walks through a broad set of technical charts and indicators to answer one key question: do current market conditions align with a bottoming process in stocks? After the S&P 500 gained over 3% in the past five trading sessions, the evidence continues to lean toward “so far, so good” — with breadth indicators, credit markets, and key moving averages all holding at critical support levels. While short-term hurdles remain, the weight of evidence looks far more like the corrections of 2023 and early 2025 than the bear market of 2022. Watch the full video breakdown below.
Warren Buffett isn’t buying — and that says a lot.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a record cash pile and has paused its stock buybacks. For someone known for buying undervalued assets, this silence can speak volumes. Despite being famous for finding value investments, Buffett’s … [Read More...]
Debt Ceiling Drama
What’s another few trillion dollars? U.S. debt is already approaching a historic $37 trillion, and now, Congress is discussing adding at least another $3 trillion to the “debt ceiling.” Yes, that’s the phrase that many hear on the news but know … [Read More...]
Stock Prices are Out of This World
Valuations Are at the Furthest Edge of the Financial Solar System By Robert Prechter, excerpted from the January 2025 Elliott Wave Theorist. Figure 1 updates our history of year-end valuations for stocks of S&P companies on two bases: price … [Read More...]
Five Benefits of Using the Elliott Wave Principle to Make Decisions
By Elliott Wave International While everyone searches for the Holy Grail of forecasting, which does not exist, there is one method of analysis that stands apart from the slew of momentum-based indicators, all of which by definition lag the market. … [Read More...]
