Tools for Technical Analysis
Warren Buffett now owns more T-bills than the Federal Reserve.
It’s true: Buffett’s investment firm, Berkshire Hathaway, owns $235 billion worth of T-bills; the Fed owns $195 billion worth. Of course, most of the Fed’s money is in other government-guaranteed debt. Buffett’s is mostly in stocks. Still, his current cash holdings are about twice the average for the previous five years. How did he accumulate so much cash? By selling stocks in this heady environment.
Gold’s three-month implied volatility has declined to its lowest level in over four years. While low volatility is not a short term timing tool, low volatility eventually precedes high volatility. At the same time, total open interest in gold futures has declined to its lowest level since December 2018, as traders are either closing futures contracts or abstaining from opening new ones. The low level of open interest means that investors’ attention is turning away from gold, and the low implied volatility indicates that investors do not expect gold to move much over the course of the next three months. Both are preludes to what we see as a major move forming in gold prices.
Today we have an in-depth Elliott Wave analysis of the Bitcoin Chart from Crypto Unplugged.
This excellent analysis looks at several ways to determine a potential top for Bitcoin and where we currently are in the cycle. The First analysis uses channels and Fibonacci Time Pivots.
Magazine covers can indicate “social mood” and social mood affects the stock market. Could this magazine cover be indicating something, now?
Even though the mainstream media was looking to so-called fundamentals — such as the action of the dollar or bond yields — Elliott Wave International focused on the patterns of investor psychology
The topic with all the buzz these days is Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its future. The potential benefits include automating repetitive tasks, enhancing productivity, data analysis, assisting in medical research — and more.
… the mood surrounding AI is way more optimistic than pessimistic.
Just think about how investors have bid up the price of AI-related stock Nvidia Corp., which has a market capitalization of around $2 trillion. That’s more than the GDP of Australia or South Korea. Indeed, if Nvidia was a country, it would rank just outside the top ten largest economies on Earth. Yet — a word of caution: Trends generally don’t go up or down in straight lines without significant interruptions.
Most investors know the meaning of a “mania,” i.e., the “Tulip Mania” of the 1600s and more recently, the mania surrounding technology stocks in the late 1990s, etc.
As you might imagine, these manias usually occur during rip-roaring bull markets.
Yet, some “manias” may unfold even during bear-market rallies, and when these “mini-manias” end, they can burn investors just as much as those full-blown bull market manias.
We’ve all probably heard that “the odds are stacked against the small trader” when it comes to the stock market. That tends to push us toward investment tools like index funds. But what if the problem isn’t the market but our own brain? In today’s article, the writers at Elliott Wave International examine the psychological profile that turns winners into losers. Plus, 1 FREE course on how to help you stop self-sabotaging “good enough” trades.
In today’s article, Chris Ciovacco looks at a few new signals, one has occurred 8 previous times, one occurred 5 previous times and one rare event that has only occurred three previous times in the last 90 years! He will also look at how stocks performed in all of those cases, looking out both months and several years.
The trends of the junk bond and stock markets tend to be correlated.
The reason why is that junk bonds and stocks are closely affiliated in the pecking order of creditors in case of default. The rank of junk bonds is only slightly higher than equities because debt involves a contract.
Given these two markets are usually correlated, it’s worth paying attention when a divergence takes place. Indeed, a divergence is in the works now. In other words, while stocks have been holding up, the price of junk bonds have been trending lower for much of the year.
