How Concerning Are Predictions Of A Stock Market Crash?

Forecasting Is Difficult At Best Typically, several times a year headlines contain predictions about a coming stock market crash. Calendar year 2017 is no exception with recent bearish calls coming from Jim Rogers and David Stockman. Since markets are an extremely difficult and complex animal, our purpose here is not to criticize anyone, but rather to highlight the “grain of salt” nature of any stock market forecast. The dated headlines below featured similar gloom and doom calls, and yet, global markets remain near all-time highs. The headlines above appeared on BuisnessInsider.com and MarketWatch.com. It should also be noted that crash probabilities have hit “pay attention” levels a handful of times over the last few years. For example, the market’s risk-reward profile in October 2011 and February 2016 left the door open to a multiple year bear market. In both cases, stocks righted themselves and the hard data began to improve in a meaningful way. … [Read More...]

Are Defensive Assets Waving Red Flags For Stocks?

In good times for the market "growth" stocks, the NASDAQ and higher risk assets outperform "safe" stocks like the S&P 500. This is commonly referred to as "Risk-On". But as the market becomes more cautious and participants are more concerned … [Read More...]

This indicator had a divergence in both 2000 and 2007; a divergence is also present in 2017

Bad Breadth Can Foreshadow Bear Markets Market breadth speaks to the number of stocks participating in an advance. Strong market breadth means a high percentage of stocks are making new highs as the major indexes make new highs. Strong breadth … [Read More...]

Robert Prechter Talks About Elliott Waves and His New Book

By Elliott Wave International Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.net conducted the following interview with Bob Prechter recently. We thought you'd like to see it. ~ Tim McMahon, editor. ********* 1. How did you come across Elliott wave … [Read More...]

Will Stocks Finally Break out of the 35 Year Box?

Despite all the talk of the Dow making new highs over the last few years the truth is actually quite different. The way an index is “weighted” can make all the difference in how it looks. In addition indexes that change their composition regularly like the DOW (i.e.removing some companies and adding better performing ones) create an unnatural upward bias.

US Drives Global Growth

The US is back in the driver seat again as a sustained and growing economic powerhouse – the Trump Economy. Since the November 2016 elections, the US economic data and outlook have been driving investment in US equities as well as select foreign investment opportunities. The reduction in regulations and business friendly Trump administration seems to have unleashed the hoard of cash and opportunity of the past 7+ years. US and foreign business are, again, “wheeling and dealing” with the intent of generating greater profits and more opportunities.

Rare Signal Says Stock Rally Is The Real Deal

Only Three Other Occurrences Since 2002

The True Strength Index (TSI) is a momentum oscillator based on a double smoothing of price changes. As shown in the monthly S&P 500 graph below, a positive momentum crossover (black moves above red) has only occurred four times since 2002. In the three previous cases, the S&P 500 rallied for a long period of time after the crossover; the average gain was 52%.

Is Silver Worth Buying in 2017?

Silver investments have a sketchy past. Recently, it came to light that from 2007 to 2013 major players like JP Morgan Chase and HSBC, had been manipulating the price of silver. But that is not the first time the price of silver was manipulated. Beginning in the early 1970s, the Hunt brothers, Nelson, William and Lamar began accumulating large amounts of silver. Until his dying day in 2014, Nelson Bunker Hunt, who had once been the world’s wealthiest man, denied that he and his brothers had plotted to corner the global silver market. Whether they initially intended to “corner the market” or just believed in the ability of silver to protect against double-digit inflation is uncertain but by 1979, they had nearly cornered the global silver market.

In 1979, the brothers had made a profit of from $2 to $4 billion in silver speculation, with estimated silver holdings of 100 million troy ounces (3,100,000 kg). Because the Hunt brothers held the majority of the available above ground supply, silver prices soared from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to $50 an ounce in January 1980. However, like all bubbles this one popped as well, (in this case with the possible help of the government due to the difficulties caused by the lack of supply of silver) with prices falling back to $11 by March 1980. Eventually the Hunt brothers were forced to file for bankruptcy due to lawsuits related to their trading activities. Some see the endearingly eccentric Texans as the victims of overstepping regulators and vindictive insiders who couldn’t stand the thought of being played by a couple of southern yokels.

Even today, many investors still prefer to invest in gold rather than silver. However, 2017 is a shiny new year by many standards. Is this the year to buy silver?

Elliott Wave Analysis: Where the RUBBER Meets the Road

There are nearly 50 commodity markets traded all over the world at any given time. That’s one for every state in the United States. So, how is an investor or trader supposed to know which of these markets to follow and which ones to dismiss?

Is Warren Buffett Bullish or Bearish Now?

Actions Speak Louder Than Words — If you want to know what someone really thinks about the stock market, look at their recent portfolio transactions. What can we learn from recent moves made by two of the world’s most respected value investors?

Learning to Recognize Trade Setups with “MACD”

According to Investopedia – the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (aka. MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA.

Total index investing today exceeds 4 Trillion dollars.Why has the share of index fund investing gone from basically zero in 1985, to more than 35% in 2016?

Tips for Trading Options with Elliott Waves

In this interview, Wayne Gorman, veteran Elliott wave analyst offers tips and strategies for trading options using Elliott Waves.