Chris Ciovacco Analyzes the April 10th Market Situation

In this week’s market analysis, Chris Ciovacco reviews a wide range of charts and technical indicators to address a central question: are stocks in the process of forming a sustainable low?

The Big Picture

Following last week’s call to keep an open mind about a potential market bottom, the S&P 500 followed through with a gain of over 3% in the last five trading sessions. Ciovacco’s overarching theme is “so far, so good” — meaning the charts are not yet flashing bear market warnings, though short-term hurdles remain.

Key Takeaways

• Commodities vs. Stocks (CRB/S&P 500 ratio): The current setup resembles the corrections of 2023 and early 2025 more than the 2022 bear market, which is an encouraging sign for bulls.
• Credit markets and junk bonds (JNK): No signs of the kind of breakdown seen ahead of Q1 2022; price action remains above upward-sloping moving averages with constructive consolidation.
• Breadth indicators: The NYSE Advance-Decline Volume Line remains well above an upward-sloping centerline — a stark contrast to the deterioration seen in 2008 and 2022.
• S&P 500 technicals: Three closes above an upward-sloping 200-day moving average. A gap fill and retest of that average wouldn’t be surprising short-term, but the overall structure looks more like 2014 than 2022.
• Tech leadership (XLK): Still scoring 96.8% in the secular regime shift model vs. the S&P 500. Some vulnerability has emerged relative to foreign stocks, but XLK vs. SPY remains 5-for-5 on the monthly cloud model.
• Sentiment and historical data: Fear levels near the recent low align with past market bottoms. NASDAQ 100 historical data shows that similar setups have been followed by average 12-month gains of 27–33%, with the market higher 70% of the time.
• Bonds vs. Stocks: Unlike January 2022 (when bonds were outperforming stocks — a warning sign), stocks are currently crushing bonds on a trailing 1-year basis.

Bottom Line

The weight of evidence continues to support the secular bull market thesis. The current pullback looks far more like a correction within an ongoing uptrend than the beginning of a prolonged bear market. That said, Ciovacco emphasizes the need for a flexible, unbiased mind as the data evolves week to week.

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Note: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.