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Will Oil Prices Skyrocket in the Aftermath of Hurricane Ida?

September 9, 2021 by Leave a Comment

As you probably know, Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana on August 29, the exact date that Hurricane Katrina made a Louisiana landfall sixteen years earlier.
On August 30, the Wall Street Journal said:

Oil Industry Surveys Damage After Hurricane Ida Slams Louisiana
The storm disrupted fuel supplies, and the speed of the recovery will depend on how long it takes for refineries to come online amid flooding and power outages.
Did oil prices skyrocket due to the disruption in oil production? Well, Bloomberg reported (August 30) that prices initially fell 1.6% [as Ida made landfall] before they “edged” higher.

Filed Under: Oil Tagged With: , ,

Be Prepared “Or Else”

August 31, 2021 by Leave a Comment

Ever since my Boy Scout days their “motto” of “Be Prepared” has been my guiding philosophy. Buying when things are plentiful is much better than fighting the crowds when things are scarce. (Think toilet paper in 2020).  Unfortunately, “hoarding” has gotten a bad name because some individuals try to buy up all the scarce supplies WHEN THEY ARE SCARCE but if you buy when they are plentiful, it isn’t hoarding… it is being prepared. And rather than being a bad thing… it is actually a good thing.  Here’s why: If you have your own supply you won’t be competing with the unprepared for the scarce resources.  You may even have enough to share some with your friends and neighbors.  In today’s article by Elliottwave International, we’re going to look at scarcity and its companion austerity and how they relate to the cost of money. ~ Tim McMahon, editor

Filed Under: Articles Tagged With: , , , ,

Why the Stock Market is the True “Great Deceiver”

July 28, 2021 by Leave a Comment

Most stock market investors get fooled at major price turns. Why? Because a bottom never feels like a bottom and a top never feels like a top – how many bears could you count in 2007, right before stocks tanked and the Great Recession followed? This idea was embodied by the quote attributed to Barron Rothschild, an 18th-century member of the Rothschild banking family. He said that “the time to buy is when there’s blood running in the streets.”

Filed Under: Market Sentiment Analysis Tagged With: , , , ,

High “Beta” stocks … “Meme” stocks… and Index stocks… Oh My!

July 12, 2021 by Leave a Comment

High “Beta” stocks tend to move in the same direction as the overall market but at a multiple of the overall index. So for instance, if the overall market is up 2% a high beta stock might be up 3% or 5%, or even 10%.  “Meme” stocks are those that have gotten a lot of publicity on Social Media and also tend to be high beta stocks as well. Index stocks are those that make up a particular index and are often most volatile when first added or removed from an index. Today’s article covers the convergence of all of these three factors on June 25th.

Filed Under: Stock Market / Investing Tagged With: , ,

The Fear of Missing Out

June 23, 2021 by Leave a Comment

The fear of missing out (FOMO) is a powerful narcotic that often affects market participants near the top of a cycle.  And before long, you hear the “bag-boy” at the supermarket bragging about his “portfolio”.  When that happens it is time to follow Warren Buffet’s sage advice and “Be fearful when everyone else is greedy and greedy when everyone else is fearful.”

Filed Under: Stock Market / Investing Tagged With: , , , , , ,

Elliott Wave Analysis Can Help You See Countertrends. Pattern in Focus: the Zigzag.

May 14, 2021 by Leave a Comment

Often, as traders and investors we start off with an open mind about playing the field, so to speak. We watch the news, listen to friends and colleagues — and we try to apply what’s known as “fundamental” market analysis to make our trading decisions. Soon, though, we start to realize that the “bullet-proof” logic of “fundamental” analysis is not Kevlar, but a piece of cardboard. We see markets fall after good news; rally after bad; and go sideways, defying both bulls and bears. That’s when we realize that trading is not as easy as it seems.

Filed Under: Zig-Zag Pattern Tagged With: , , , ,

Capital Gains Tax Hike News: Was It REALLY to Blame for Sell-off?

May 8, 2021 by Leave a Comment

As Elliott Wave International has noted many times, the mainstream financial press always tries to find a reason for a given trading day’s stock market action.

In other words, if stocks happen to be up for the day, many financial journalists will say it was because of this or that “positive” news. If stocks happen to be down for the day, you got it, these journalists will ignore the positive news and search for something “negative” that happened in the country or world and say that was the reason stocks went down.

Filed Under: Market Sentiment Analysis Tagged With: , ,

Rise of the “Know Nothings”

May 1, 2021 by Leave a Comment

With the longest “Bull market” in history in full swing young investors are flocking to the market with no experience of ever having seen a full-fledged crash only “corrections” that are quickly reversed into higher and higher valuations. Twenty-somethings were still in elementary school in 2008 so it is a distant memory… let alone 2002-3 or 1989. With no experience in dealing with a crash, they are plunging into the market at record levels.

Filed Under: Socionomics Tagged With: , , ,

Are Investors “Courting Doom”?

April 29, 2021 by Leave a Comment

Since the start of the pandemic, millions of people have opened trading accounts. Perhaps, you have as well.  When stocks only go up – as they have over the past year – trading seems easy. That’s why many traders today use lots of margin debt. And why not? Borrowing to buy stocks can work out well during an uptrend. Yet, highly leveraged portfolios can be deeply wounded during a fast-moving downtrend. When this bull run ends, we’ll hear lots of stories about traders who got caught completely unprepared. Don’t let it happen to you.

Filed Under: Stock Market / Investing Tagged With: ,

Too Many Bulls?

April 20, 2021 by Leave a Comment

We know from experience that whenever investor sentiment gets too lopsided — in other words, if there are “too many” bulls or “too many” bears — it inevitably means that a market reversal is near. Back in January, we ran an article on the extreme bullishness of the market and then we saw a correction but it didn’t last long enough and once again we are looking at a bullish etreme. Today we are bringing you an article from Elliott Wave International which looks at how bullish the current market is.

Filed Under: Stock Market / Investing Tagged With: ,
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