Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management always presents a well-reasoned approach to the market in his “short-takes” video. He emphasizes that we need to look at the preponderance of the evidence but even that doesn’t “guarantee” any future market action. All that we can do is see what has happened in the past and determine the probability that it will happen that way again. Even if 90% of the time some indicator resulted in a rise (or fall) in the market one time out of ten the opposite could still happen so we need to be prepared and listen to what the market is telling us. In Yesterday’s video Chris Ciovacco looked at volatility (i.e. the VIX) and what it is telling us regarding the current state of the market. Interestingly, recent VIX activity was actually worse than in any other crash tracked since 1990 putting it on par with the 2008 crash and in terms of volatility it was actually worse than 2008.
Junk Bonds: 2 “Golden” Junctures
The Golden Ratio — 1.618 or .618 — is ubiquitous throughout nature. You’ll find this mathematical proportion in the shapes of galaxies, sea horses, pine cones, the arrangement of seeds on a sunflower head, and numerous other natural phenomena… including the chart patterns of financial markets.
Is the Buying Opportunity Here Yet?
With the market down so sharply many are speculating that it will rebound just as sharply but market sentiment might be indicating something else altogether.
Did the Oil Crash Wreck the Stock Market?
Crude oil took a 30% dive on Sunday, March 8. Yet what’s happened in oil this year is so much bigger than that headline-grabbing, one-day move. In January, oil was $64 a barrel. It hit $27.34 intraday on Monday, March 9, so the price of oil fell 57% in just two months. Talk about a swift decline.
The Beginning of a Long-Term “Secular” Bull Market?
In the following article, Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management takes a look at the mood of the common investor as the outflows of equity funds reach new levels of pessimism. These levels are actually more pessimistic than in July 2016 when everyone was convinced that Hillary was going to be elected. They are even more pessimistic than at the depths of despair in March 2009 after the beginning of the “Great Recession”. So what is going on? ~ Tim McMahon, editor.
Bullish Signal Has Only Happened 10 Times in the Last 94 Years.
In today’s article by Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital Management Chris looks at a Bullish Signal that has only happened 10 times in the last 90 Years. Plus 8 charts that show a bullish break upward through resistance.
Trade, Impeachment, and the Conviction of Buyers and Sellers
The following article by Chris Ciovacco looks at the impact the possibility of impeachment is having and could have on the stock market.
Almost Inverted Yield Dip Is Bullish for Stocks
During the trading session on Monday, August 19, the “bottoming process” case for the stock market remained intact. The NYSE Common Stock A-D Line held the line last week at a logical level associated with the S&P 500 reversals in March and June (chart below).
Message from the Stock/Bond Ratio
The historical cases told us to be open to a period marked by bond underperformance relative to the stock market. Thus, it might be helpful to revisit the stock vs. bond topic as we near the end of July.
Do Facts Support Doom and Gloom or Higher Highs for Stocks and/or Gold?
Dating back to 1950, the S&P 500 has only dropped over 40% three times: 1973-74, 2000-02, and 2007-09. In each case after the big drop, something caused investors to change their attitude and behavior related to the attractiveness of common stocks. Major lows are rare and the shifts that occur in the minds of human beings near major lows are rare. History tells us valuable information can be found in rare market events.
